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Mexico central bank governor spoke! Bitcoin is a commodity, not a currency

The governor of Mexico’s central bank believes that bitcoin and other digital currencies should be classified as commodities rather than currencies. This is consistent with the conclusions of the commodity futures trading commission. In 2015, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said that encrypted currencies should be considered commodities. The governor of Mexico’s central bank believes that bitcoin and other digital currencies should be classified as commodities rather than currencies. This is consistent with the conclusions of the commodity futures trading commission. In 2015, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said that encrypted currencies should be considered commodities.
Mexico central bank governor Augustin Carstens in Mexico University of technology ITAM teaching, said, bitcoin does not have the credit money required by the central bank guarantee, so do not meet the broad definition of currency. In Carstens’s view, bitcoin should be treated as a commodity because there is no way to guarantee its book value in a financial system.
Carstens added that bitcoin should first be discussed as a “cyber security issue”, but that financial innovations should be encouraged, but regulators have an obligation to protect consumers from fraud and abuse.
In a speech at the Institute of Science in Mexico, Carstens pointed out that technological development in the financial system cannot be just a result of innovation and must be carried out simultaneously with the supervision of financial authorities. FX678 quoted foreign media reports, Carstens said in his speech, Mexico began to follow the example of Vietnam and other countries, is preparing to introduce relevant laws and regulations, the digital currency supervision.
In the role of the government of Mexico, the Treasury is responsible for drafting the relevant regulatory provisions of the financial system, while the central bank is responsible for setting up monetary policy and ensuring the normal functioning of the financial system. Similar to Vietnam, the Mexico government has promulgated in 2014, announced the ban, coins and other digital currency is not the currency, thus limiting the banking transaction accepting digital currency.

Oil prices have peaked and the September high probability will continue to decline!

Although the US crude oil inventories have continued to decline recently, OPEC has not made much effort in the first two months, and IEA expects that the rebalancing process of the global crude oil market may still take several years, which will lead to the continued pressure of crude oil in the near future.
Crude oil has gone down again after its high point in August, and will it continue in September?
The figure shows the monthly performance of crude oil since 2001. As you can see from the figure, crude oil is basically declining in the second half of the year. September is the lowest month of the year.
This means that crude prices will continue to decline in September after the price peaked in August. As a result, shorting crude oil has a bigger chance of making profits in September.
From the monthly average price trend, although the trend of crude oil in the past five years began to be different, in the previous historical trend, crude oil will usually form an obvious high in the middle of the year. In the past five years, crude oil is usually formed in April and August, respectively, in the first half and the second half of the two high points. However, the downward trend in crude oil in the second half has not changed.
This year’s trend is very similar to the average trend over the past five years, with prices rising high in April and August, and may continue to fall.
From a technical point of view, the trend of crude oil this year are still in decline, prices in June fell to a low of 42.03 after Tongdaoxiagui support rebound, then prices rose to 50.40 again after facing downward pressure, rising channel and below the line of the hour. This suggests that crude oil will continue to face downside risks and is expected to fall further, with support at 45.22, followed by 43.81 and low 42.03. this year
To sum up, analysts believe that the probability of crude oil falling in September is higher, so shorting crude oil is a better choice.

The renminbi has depreciated by 8.5% against the euro this year

Chinese foreign exchange trading center yesterday released data show that in August 29th the interbank foreign exchange market, the central parity of RMB exchange rate: the dollar reported 6.6293, up 60 basis points; the middle price of the RMB against the euro at 7.9333, the depreciation of 31 basis points; the middle price of the RMB against the pound at 8.5706, the depreciation of 93 basis points; the RMB against the yen at 6.0961, the depreciation of 236 basis points.
In this regard, the gold Research Institute chief economist Zhao Qingming yesterday on the “Securities Daily” the reporter said, because the RMB exchange rate is the reference to a basket of currencies managed floating exchange rate system, the basket is relatively stable, are bound to fall in the currency of the currency rose up and down.
“As a non dollar currency, the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar this year, while the reference to a basket of currencies, the RMB exchange rate index has depreciated.” Zhou Jingtong, senior researcher at the strategy development department of the head office of the Bank of China, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporters yesterday.
It is noteworthy that, from the beginning of this year to date, the devaluation of the RMB against the pound was 0.6%; the devaluation of the RMB against the Japanese yen was 2.2%, and the devaluation of the RMB against the euro was 8.5%. As you can see, the renminbi has depreciated against a basket of currencies other than the dollar.
Zhou Jingtong believes that this is due to the improvement of the fundamentals of the euro area economy, leading to the euro against the U.S. dollar and the RMB exchange rate. Good performance, stable gradually benefit from the economic recovery in the euro zone’s political situation and the European Central Bank is about to exit loose monetary policy expectations, Euro brisk performance, showing a strong European beauty weak pattern.
In this context, to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate, Zhou Jingtong suggested that, first, we must maintain the stability and sustainable development of China’s economy. Two is to further improve cross-border capital flow management, and maintain financial market stability. Actively and steadily push forward the opening up of the financial industry and “going out””. Three is to improve the exchange rate management model, adhere to the general direction of the exchange rate market. Four is that commercial banks should improve the situation looking forward and business flexibility. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate under the new circumstances, commercial banks should seize the opportunity, fluctuations in the exchange rate process according to the change of residents’ preference for asset allocation, do related financial services, increase foreign exchange financial product innovation to meet customer needs, foreign currency asset allocation.

The hurricane has destroyed the oil refining centers in the United States, but oil prices suddenly earned?

MarketWatch article page screenshot
click to enlarge
Hurricane Harvey and the storm move has destroyed two all-powerful, America’s largest oil refining center, destroyed 15% U.S. refining capacity, is pushing up the price of gasoline in most parts of the United states. Next, the damage to refining facilities will be further increased.
But this is not a bad thing for refinery shareholders – the huge profits earned by gasoline prices during downtime will make up for losses due to lack of construction and even earn more.
click to enlarge
MarketWatch article page screenshot
Patrick DeHaan, a senior oil analyst at GasBuddy, said Friday that gasoline prices in gasoline stations in the United States would rise by at least 15 cents per gallon over the next two weeks.
By the end of 27, hurricane Harvey had destroyed 15% of the country’s refining capacity, and as the heavy rains and floods have worsened, the damage to refining facilities in the United States has been further increased.
Monday morning at the New York Mercantile Exchange, Nymex futures rose 3.7% to $1.7291 a gallon, Monday morning in Asia September delivery of futures contracts is soaring nearly 6% to 1.7645 per gallon high, October delivery of futures prices rose 4.2% to $1.6057.
click to enlarge
The price change of Nymex futures at New York commodity exchange in the past 5 days
According to GasBuddy data, at the retail level, the United States Monday morning gasoline price of 2.371 U.S. dollars per gallon, 1 cents higher than Sunday, 5 cents higher than last Monday.
The largest oil refinery in Texas, Port Arthur Tx, owned by Saudi Aramco, refining 600 thousand barrels per day. The company is still assessing losses incurred by Hurricane Harvey. Next, in Houston, owned by Exxon Mobil Oil Corp in the United States second largest oil refinery will interrupt the supply, the plant daily processing 560 thousand barrels of crude oil, and oil supply to the southeast, to the east coast of the ship oil through the pipeline.
DeHaan said at least five large refineries had been shut down by Hurricane Harvey late Friday. He also said that the most terrible is not a hurricane, but after the hurricane flood caused by heavy rainfall, the refinery shut down time will affect the price of gasoline, from the current view, in the dangerous area of oil refinery at least that nearly two weeks are the need to shut down.”
MarketWatch also said in a subsequent report, although the area affected by Hurricane refineries may be shut down for several weeks, caused a huge blow to the American oil industry, and gasoline futures prices soared; but the huge profits of giant enterprises shareholders but is not a bad thing — during the downtime due to get higher oil prices will make up for can not start the losses incurred, even earn more.

Run, gold! U.S. government shutdown probability or as high as 75%

After breaking the bamboo 1300 gold, but also to increase confidence in bulls. Now, after 1300 gold across this bridge, running pace is likely to accelerate, take a look at this a few photos!
Trump’s approval rating against the dollar is weakening and will boost gold
Run, gold! These pictures suggest that you can do more bravely
According to the RealClearPolitics poll, this chart shows a steady decline in the dollar, which is closely related to a fall in Trump’s approval ratings.
Run, gold! These pictures suggest that you can do more bravely
Trump and a series of policies to stimulate the economy currently belong to the stage with no reality whatever rate will remain sluggish, material support. The dollar and gold remain at a certain degree of negative correlation, the weaker U.S. dollar will be expected to boost gold.
The looming debt problem, the market will stir
Last week Trump had threatened to shut down the government, but also to build a wall along the border of speech, once the market panic. Deutsche Bank recently released report shows that failure to raise the debt ceiling will bring very bad consequences, even if there is only a little bit of this possibility is still very bad results. Any form of default will have a profound negative impact on the global financial markets and the US economy.
At present, the United States government debt to GDP ratio has been as high as 76%, will usher in a crucial moment the U.S. government debt ceiling next month, policymakers worry that it would be a drag on economic growth, the United States Treasury Secretary Nouchine (Steven Mnuchin) warned that unless Congress in September 29th before the debt ceiling increase, or the U.S. government will run out of money. The market is expected to stir, is expected to help rose gold.
Deutsche Bank predicts that the U.S. government debt ceiling will face two directions: one is the bipartisan support, to raise the debt ceiling without additional conditions; the two party only in the scheme to support an increase in the debt ceiling more favorable circumstances of the party.

Demand for plastic season or worse than expected

Recently, plastics futures prices continued to rise, the main 1801 contract has exceeded 10000 yuan pass, 10600 yuan / ton short distance. Petrochemical stocks are at a low level and the downstream demand season is approaching, a major factor contributing to the rise in plastic prices. However, the supply will also gradually increase, and the peak season demand or worse than expected, so we need to beware of plastic futures callback risk.
The cost of raw materials is limited
At present, the international crude oil prices are still weak oscillation. On the one hand, the U.S. crude oil inventories have been falling for eight weeks, the number is also a continuous decline in oil drilling. On the other hand, US crude oil production has increased to 9 million 528 thousand barrels per day, the highest level since July 2015. Thus, the rise in production offset the recent decline in inventories and the decline in oil drilling. In addition, although OPEC is still in the implementation of production cuts, but because of the two major exemptions Libya and Nigeria production surge, dragged down the overall output reduction effect of OPEC, making the July rate of compliance may be only 80%. Overall, the upstream raw material cost support is still in place, but the intensity is relatively limited.
Low inventory, push up the price
Inventory, with the strict control of inventory of petrochemical, inventory has remained low levels. At present, Sinopec, North China, East China, central China, Southern China four major regions PE Petrochemical inventories in 54 thousand barrels, at this year’s low, also lower than the same period last year 28%. Social inventories have also fallen sharply since June, but have picked up recently.
On the device side, the process of restarting Shenhua, Xinjiang and Lanzhou Petrochemical remains to be concerned. In addition, Shenhua coal oil and co-founder of transit may put into production in the four quarter, so late still need to pay attention to the dynamic device.
Downstream enterprises start enthusiasm is not high
Although the downstream market is about to usher in the “golden nine silver ten” demand season, but the scale may be worse than in previous years. It is understood that the current films demand into the reserve stage, a single part of the dealer reserves; agricultural order follow up gradually.
Large agricultural enterprises start improvement, operation rate of 60% – 80%, Nissan amount ranging from 400 thousand – 1 million 400 thousand tons; medium-sized enterprises operating rate is generally 30% – 50%, 150 thousand – 350 thousand tons of daily output in small and medium enterprises; a small amount of power. However, due to the impact of environmental inspectors this year, the majority of factories shut down. Overall, the current downstream business initiative is not high, the general willingness to stock.
Overall, the current petrochemical inventory is low, coupled with agricultural demand season approaching, the price rose oscillation plastic support. However, the late supply and demand contradictions are gradually accumulated, on the one hand, crude oil prices weak oscillation, raw material cost support is limited; on the other hand, the fourth quarter there are still possible to put into production and restart, supply or upgrade. In addition, although the traditional agricultural downstream demand for the upcoming season, but this year by the environmental inspectors, the operating rate to a certain extent affected, thereby affecting demand. Later, still need to beware of high plastic prices down risk.

The bottom of the corn will remain oscillating in the four quarter

At present, the old corn out steadily, the new corn market soon, corn substitute has returned to Hong Kong, the market supply ample, corn prices continued high limited. In the initial stage of the new grain market, if the logistics are smooth, the short-term supply will increase, and the price of corn will go down. Attention to the new season corn market.
The late factors that affect the price of corn include the following aspects: the storage time, the output reduction, the new grain listing, the government subsidy, the purchase policy and the consumption situation.
First, the reserves and the duration of storage have an important impact on the supply of corn.
The main means of supplying corn in our country is the storage auction. As of August 25, 2017, all types of policy corn total amount of 71 million 450 thousand tons, the cumulative turnover reached 42 million tons, with the 2016 annual turnover basically flat. In the past years, the storage time is generally in the middle of October. The storage time and the amount of throwing will affect the supply of corn on the market, and the ending time of the storage or storage will be greatly affected.
Second, this year’s corn crop is expected.
Since last year, the effect of supply side reforms began to appear, 2016/2017 corn acreage decreased by 30 million mu, annual 2017/2018 for planting benefit continued to decline, falling from 5 to June because of the dry climate superimposed in planting area, is expected this year’s corn planting area will reduce over the previous year. Estimated that this year the national corn planting area will reduce 30 million – 40 million acres. At present, precipitation and temperature is more normal, the overall soil moisture preferences, the probability of a new large area of disaster is smaller, we expect 2017/2018 corn production fell by 12 million tons.
Third, the new grain market or a certain impact on the spot market.
Since mid August, Henan, Shandong, Hebei area of spring maize has a few listed, in October China’s northeast corn harvest began, from the historical data, the new corn market prices is a high probability event, but also consider the market when the weather conditions, logistics capacity and market participation enthusiasm. In addition, although the current new works growing well, but still have to be aware of the harvest stage, whether the northeast and north again, similar to last autumn’s continuous rainy, causing corn mildew occurred.
Fourth, the government subsidy policy has a great impact on the price trend of corn in the afternoon.
Last year the implementation of the corn purchasing system reform, in accordance with the market pricing, price subsidy separation principle, the establishment of a corn producer subsidy system, the formation of a multi market market acquisition of the new mechanism. In 2016, the central government allocated 39 billion 38 million 600 thousand yuan of subsidy funds. This year the number of government subsidies will have a great impact on the market outlook of main rice price, subsidy amount many growers are willing to sell at a low price, the market price will be low; the amount of subsidy is less willing to growers do not lower the price, the market price is high.
At present, the market-oriented pricing mechanism has basically come into being. A large number of new grain market, grain and other state-owned prop time and price, will have a greater impact on the price of corn.
Fifth, in the long run, the demand for corn is expected to increase, is conducive to corn destocking.
Feed demand, 2016/2017 feed consumption increased slightly, but a significant decline in imports of corn imports, feed demand for corn or increase 7 million – 10 million tons. Industrial consumption, 2016/2017, deep processing consumption of corn grew by 10%, or about 6 million tons. In the long run, demand for corn is expected to increase, which is conducive to corn destocking, but still need to consider the recent environmental inspectors action may have an impact on downstream consumption.
In conclusion, consider throwing storage duration, production situation, the new grain market, government subsidies, acquisition policy and consumption and other factors, the fourth quarter of corn supply pressure is still large, the price is difficult to rise, but by the government to prop up the market, the bottom is also more obvious. The corn still oscillates at the bottom of the four seasons.

Bad repression of soybean meal, easy to fall, difficult to rise

Recently, with the imported soybean premium strength, coupled with the ProFarmer field survey data lowered U.S. soybean yields, soybean meal 1801 contract show some resilience, but in view of the U.S. soybean market is approaching, high pressure, premium decline is a high probability event. In addition, domestic aquaculture performance is poor, high oil plant start-up rate, soybean meal supply pressure increases. Comprehensive analysis of the above, the latter soybean meal price will fall hard to rise, and the long-term choice of cloth is appropriate.
L premium drop is a high probability event
Recently, the main factors of the price of soybean meal and soybean oscillation support even premium soybean imports continued to be strong. We through the research on the premium of Mexico Bay, the west coast of the United States and South American ports three analysis found that the premium changes have obvious seasonal characteristics, and each index of advance premiums are to rise to lead the South American port. Every year 5 to June, South American port imports soybean liters, premium rose first. In this stage, the US is still in the growth stage, the new bean uncollected, Chen beans, South American soybean amount sold in 50%, more than 70%, the market supply of soybeans in a tight pattern, so the premium go strong, and this trend continued to the end of 8. After August, the South American soybean import port premium opened weaker mode, in this stage, the U.S. soybean market, soybean supply is abundant, the competition effect is enhanced, South American ports lose the competitive advantage of soybean premium, began to weaken, the cost of imports in reducing procurement. In 2017 the U.S. soybean harvest is expected to strongly, with the U.S. market, premium decline is a high probability event, will lose the import cost of support, soybean meal prices increase the probability of falling again.
ProFarmer field inspection data underestimated actual production. The folk organization ProFarmer conducted a week-long Midwest crop inspections ended, it was estimated at 48.5 bushels per acre in 2017 in the United States average soybean yield, the yield will reach a record 4 billion 331 million bushels, but lower than the estimated USDA supply and demand report in August 49.4 bushels per acre yield. Although the estimates of the inspections yield data is lower than the August supply and demand report, but did not give the market a boost too much, because according to the survey data of ProFarmer past 5 years, it has always been lower than the actual yield, the average soybean yield is expected to underestimate at 190 million bushels, if in accordance with the current area is expected to conversion, rather to underestimate 2.15 bushels per acre, so the market is expected to present the overall U.S. soybean yield value is 49 – about 50 bushels per acre, the overall market is still a high tone, will continue to bring to the market down

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